India projected to have 35 lakh COVID-19 cases by September

July 27, 2020 40 Views No Comment

Spl. Correspondent NEW DELHI, JUL 26 (NPN): While Kerala has been a model state for containment of COVID-19 yet its chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan has openly acknowledged that community transmission has already taken place. Despite Viyajan choosing to be upfront on the virus, the Centre’s ‘denial mode’ on admitting community transmission is a big damper. The Centre’s continued denial of community transmission is also a hurdle to public awareness on the gravity of the crisis.

Though there still seems to be a great reluctance to admit the fact that the novel Coronavirus epidemic in India was well into the stage of community transmission, more and more states seem to be realising that it was becoming increasingly untenable to outrightly deny the possibility.

A grave scenario was projected by the prestigious Indian Institute of Science (IISc) Bengaluru which claimed that the number of COVID-19 cases would exceed 3.5 million by September 1,2020 and could even further rise as high as 12 million by November 1.

The IISc study by a group of noted scientists says that by the New Year on January 1, 2021, India would have possibly reached close to 30 million infected cases (over 6 million ‘active’ cases and 1 million fatalities). The pandemic is not expected to ‘peak’ before March 2021 .

This is an apocalyptic scenario. The international community anticipates a massive crisis spiralling out of control and is closely watching India, which accounts for one-sixth of humanity The Newshour programme on BBC Radio World Service gave top billing to the pandemic ravaging India. The highlights of the discussion:

– The rate at which the infection is going up in India is ‘worrisome’.

– There are many more infections that are to be counted beyond the official figures.

– Vast cities like Mumbai and Delhi are the worst hit but the pandemic is spreading to other cities and towns too and lockdown is being re-imposed in some areas.

– The situation is ‘absolutely bad’ in Delhi where alongside the pandemic-related issues, there is also the collateral effect on people’s lives. The migrant labourers who are trying to get back to their homes are hard up, as once again the government has stopped the transportation, the trains as well as the bus services.

– Overall, there is a sharp increase of cases all over the country and the epidemiologists and scientists are of the opinion that the government needs to take a strong stand and admit there is community transmission so that steps are taken to see that the epidemic can be brought under control.

– Given the number of cases, community transmission is surely happening. The active states are concentrated in a few states and although there is a steady increase of cases all over the country, the ‘alarming increase’ is happening at present in a few states and there too, confined to a few districts.

Perhaps, the government does not want to ‘scare the public’ by admitting there is community transmission and this could be one of the reasons behind this denial mode.

– The fatality rate has not been high compared to other countries. But this is changing, as more tests are being conducted and more cases come to light and there is also an incidence of acute cases. Plus, the hospitals are ‘getting flooded’ and are increasingly unable to handle the severe cases. Therefore, the fatality rates are going up.

– Proportionately, the number of infected cases is relatively low as of now, as compared to the United States and Brazil. But the reality is that India is facing ‘a very precarious situation’. Since the infection cases are going up ‘at a very alarming rate’, the situation can ‘go out of control at any point’ from now onward.

– One problem is that people are not taking ‘social distancing’ seriously in the far-flung regions of India. Therefore, it is small comfort that India is doing relatively better than the US or Brazil as of now. The truth is that India is in ‘a very precarious position’ and needs to be ‘very, very careful to make sure that the situation does not explode.’ Things are going to get a lot worse before they get any better in India.

The world community must be aware that the Indian people are grappling with an existential crisis and for a foreseeable future, Indian economy will be in doldrums, and its capacity to perform on the ‘global commons’ is severely restricted.

The IISc study becomes a benchmark to judge the performance of the government. Searchlights are going to be held by the world community in the weeks and months ahead as the fatality rate starts shooting up.