Split verdict looms in Nagaland as NPF, NDPP battle for power

March 2, 2018 2458 Views No Comment

Naga Republic News

The Naga Republic Projection—

NPF will emerge as single largest party

NDPP-BJP to form govt if NPF win is below 25 seats

If NPF crosses 25+ seats, chances of forming govt with smaller parties/independents by the NPF

Dead heat where no party or formation able to reach simple majority. Presidents Rule should not be ruled out in such a scenario

The election results in Nagaland expected by the evening of March 3 is likely to be split right down the middle with neither the ruling Naga Peoples Front (NPF) nor the newly floated outfit, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) crossing the halfway mark on their own.

Although the actual results will be known only on March 3, when counting of votes will take place, it is almost certain that the defining story of the Nagaland elections 2018 is the intense and close contest between the NPF led by Dr Shurhozelie and TR Zeliang and the NDPP under Neiphiu Rio. In several seats across Nagaland it is too close to call on who is winning.

In a post-poll projection conducted by The Naga Republic it is evident that the NPF may emerge as the single largest party by a few seats ahead of its rival the NDPP. However if the NPF is restricted to near about 25 seats and below, the NDPP is expected to surge towards the simple majority mark riding on its pre-poll alliance with the BJP. The BJP is expected to win around 9 seats against the 20 it contested.

But even if the NDPP-BJP Alliance crosses the magic figure of 31 seats, it’s going to be a very close call, as per the projection of The Naga Republic.

However the other possibility that could emerge is the NPF forming a government with support of its pre-poll alliance partners, the NCP and independents. This scenario could emerge if the NPF reaches anywhere near 25 seats or more on its own and the NPP and JD (U) not only registering wins but also sticking to its pre-poll commitment with the NPF.

For the NDPP-BJP Alliance, its chances of forming the next government will depend on keeping the NPF numbers below 25 seats while for the NPF it would want to keep the NDPP below 19 seats and hope to get reach atleast 25 on its own.

Meanwhile given the very close election that has been projected, a hung Assembly where no party or formation is able to form a government is also not ruled out. In such a scenario we should not rule out a short period of President’s Rule in the State.

As per the assessment of The Naga Republic, the 10-12 seats across Nagaland will be crucial in determining the next government. According to observations there are around 10-12 seats where it is too close to know who will win. Most of these are direct contests between the NPF and NDPP-BJP. The projection is that if the NDPP (BJP) wins these close contests, this could swing the election in favour of the NDPP-BJP Alliance and help it get closer to the majority mark.

However a good performance for the NPF, especially under Mokokchung and Mon district, which accounts for around 17 seats, could make it very difficult for the NDPP-BJP Alliance to form a government. An NPF government is therefore also not ruled out.

The overall projection though is for a very close finish. In this scenario the Independents, projected to win 2 or 3 seats could well decide the course of government formation.

Given that it’s going to be a very close election, every seat will count. One should also not rule out the prospect of a situation where it’s a dead heat (exactly level) and the Governor may have no other option but to impose President’s Rule!

Credit: Projection for Mokokchung District provided by Limalenden Longkumer, senior journalist