India currently facing 3rd Covid wave: Scientists

NEW DELHI, DEC 23 (IANS) : A slew of studies by Indian scientists show that amid rising cases of Omicron, the third wave of Covid-19 has set in India from mid-December, and it may hit its peak in February next year. A yet-to-be peer reviewed study led by a team of researchers from the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT), Kanpur used a statistical methodology based on the fitting of a mixture of Gaussian distributions – based on an algorithm for clustering to estimate the parameters.

The third wave was forecast using the data on the first two waves of pandemic. The team also utilised the data of different countries that are already facing the third wave, modelling their daily cases data and predicting the impact and timeline for the third wave in India.

“The report forecasts India’s third wave of Covid-19 to start around mid-December 2021 and the cases to peak in the beginning of February 2022,” Subhra Sankar Dhar, Associate Professor, department of Mathematics and Statistics, wrote in the paper. A separate study led by a joint team from the IITs Hyderabad and Kanpur is based on the Sutra model, which tracks the country’s Covid-19 trajectory.

According to Prof M. Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad and Maninda Agrawal of IIT Kanpur, the daily caseload is expected to rise as Omicron begins to displace Delta as the dominant variant.

Meanwhile, India’s Omicron tally has reached 213, said the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. However, out of total Omicron positive, 90 have been discharged. So far 15 states have reported Omicron infection, said the ministry. Delhi (57) has the highest number of Omicron cases 57, closely followed by Maharashtra (54).

Daily Covid-19 caseload in India is expected to increase once the Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant, media reports quoted members of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee as saying.

According to their prediction, the third wave of Covid wave in India is set to begin “early next year”. However, they noted that the infection rate will be milder than seen in the second wave, due to a large-scale immunity and vaccination present in the country now.

The committee, however, said that it’s unlikely that India will see more daily cases than the second wave in April-May. He said the government started vaccinating majority of Indians only starting March 1, which was just about the time that the Delta variant struck. “So the Delta variant hit a population that was 100 per cent vaccine-naive, other than the frontline workers.”

It further said that now country has sero-prevalence of 75-80%, first dose for 85% of adults, both doses for 55% of adults, and a “reach” for the pandemic of 95%.

US returnee tests positive, swab sample sent for genome sequencing
Correspondent

KOHIMA, DEC 22 (NPN): Swab sample of a person, who tested positive for Covid-19 on return from the USA, has been sent for genome sequencing.
Confirming this, health & family welfare (H&FW) principal director Dr Neikhrielie Khimiao said the person, who had returned from the US, had initially tested negative on arrival. However, on the eighth day, the person tested positive for Covid in Dimapur and was asymptomatic. The patient was currently under quarantine as per the protocols, he added.
Since the State lacked the facility for genome sequencing, he said the sample was sent outside to confirm whether it was Delta or Omicron variant, adding that the report was expected in the next five to six days.
“Till the result of the genome sequencing is out, we cannot say whether it is Delta or Omicron variant,” he mentioned, adding that the H&FW department had also initiated contacting tracing. Khimiao assured that the department was prepared to face any emergency situation as necessary measures had been put in place like manpower, testing kits, oxygen units, etc. With the impending omicron variant, he said necessary information, advisories and orders have been issued to all District Task Forces (DTFs) and authorities concerned to be on alert, particularly border districts like Dimapur, Kohima, Wokha, Mon and Mokokchung.
State nodal officer for Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme and deputy director Dr Nyan Kikon has appealed to all citizens not to take the Covid-19 situation lightly in view of the Omicron and Delta variants that were causing the latest surge.
Though the severity of Omicron might not be as much as the other variant, he cautioned that it was highly transmissible and might spread rapidly. This, he said, would eventually overload the health infrastructure with an increase in hospitalization.
He said airport officials and all surveillance units at all the entry points have been directed to give daily reports to the department.
State nodal officer for Bio-Safety Level 3 laboratories Dr Tina Khamo said the department had sent a proposal to the government to set up a genome sequencing facility at BSL-3 laboratory in Kohima so that test reports could be had early.
While urging everyone to follow Covid-appropriate behaviours, she also advised those coming from outside the State to get themselves tested and isolate until the results were out.

Source: http://www.nagalandpost.com/india-currently-facing-3rd-covid-wave-scientists/247242.html