Are we seeing an upsurge in earthquakes as predicted for 2018?

Are we seeing the rise in earthquakes around the world that was predicted for 2018? Several earthquakes across the globe have been reported in the last few days since New Year and also in the few weeks before 2017 ended.

Naga Republic News

Closer home on Sunday afternoon, an earthquake measuring 6.0 on the Richter Scale hit the Myanmar-India (Manipur) Border Region which was also felt across Nagaland. According to the National Centre for Seismology (NCS), a unit of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the quake occurred at 12:17pm at a depth of 35 km. It occurred in the Myanmar-India (Manipur) Border Region at a latitude of 24.7 N and longitude of 94.7 E, it said.

A few hours earlier on January 5, an earthquake of 4.9 magnitude reportedly struck Tokyo, Japan. The epicenter of the earthquake was located some 36 km east of Tokyo. On the same day another quake rattled Central New Zealand.

It was reported that the “moderate” quake struck 20km south of the town about 8.12am on Saturday at a depth of 11km, according to Geonet. More than 800 people reported feeling it, mainly in Marlborough and Nelson, but also as far north as Paraparaumu, north of Wellington.

Similarly on January 4, a powerful 4.5-Magnitude earthquake rattled the California’s Bay Area while a magnitude 5.1 earthquake  rocked Iran‘s western province of Kermanshah.

Earlier in November, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake struck western Iran, killing more than 600 and injuring more than 9,000.

The increasing frequency of such earthquakes across the world is perhaps an indication of what scientists had forewarned about. Scientists say number of severe quakes is likely to rise strongly in 2018 because of a periodic slowing of the Earth’s rotation.

Scientists warned that there could be a big increase in numbers of devastating earthquakes around the world. They believe variations in the speed of Earth’s rotation could trigger intense seismic activity, particularly in heavily populated tropical regions.

It was also reported in the media recently that 40 earthquakes have hit Mount St. Helens in 4 days since New Year.  Mount St. Helens in the United States has been shaking, with 40 earthquakes – the most powerful of which was a 3.9 – in just four days. Since the largest earthquake, which struck Wednesday night around midnight local time, smaller earthquakes have shaken the area every half hour. Researchers believe they could be related to activity within the nearby volcano.

The link between Earth’s rotation and seismic activity was highlighted recently in a paper by Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado in Boulder and Rebecca Bendick of the University of Montana in Missoula presented at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America.

“The correlation between Earth’s rotation and earthquake activity is strong and suggests there is going to be an increase in numbers of intense earthquakes next year,” Bilham told the Observer.

In their study, Bilham and Bendick looked at earthquakes of magnitude 7 and greater that had occurred since 1900. “Major earthquakes have been well recorded for more than a century and that gives us a good record to study,” said Bilham.

They found five periods when there had been significantly higher numbers of large earthquakes compared with other times. “In these periods, there were between 25 to 30 intense earthquakes a year,” said Bilham. “The rest of the time the average figure was around 15 major earthquakes a year.”

The researchers searched to find correlations between these periods of intense seismic activity and other factors and discovered that when Earth’s rotation decreased slightly it was followed by periods of increased numbers of intense earthquakes. “The rotation of the Earth does change slightly – by a millisecond a day sometimes – and that can be measured very accurately by atomic clocks,” said Bilham.

Bilham and Bendick found that there had been periods of around five years when Earth’s rotation slowed by such an amount several times over the past century and a half. Crucially, these periods were followed by periods when the numbers of intense earthquakes increased.

“It is straightforward,” said Bilham. “The Earth is offering us a five-year heads-up on future earthquakes.”

This link is particularly important because Earth’s rotation began one of its periodic slowdowns more than four years ago. “The inference is clear,” said Bilham. “Next year we should see a significant increase in numbers of severe earthquakes. We have had it easy this year. So far we have only had about six severe earthquakes. We could easily have 20 a year starting in 2018.”

Exactly why decreases in day length should be linked to earthquakes is unclear although scientists suspect that slight changes in the behaviour of Earth’s core could be causing both effects.

In addition, it is difficult to predict where these extra earthquakes will occur – although Bilham said they found that most of the intense earthquakes that responded to changes in day length seemed to occur near the equator. About one billion people live in the Earth’s tropical regions.