State economy is growing steadily: Nagaland Economic Survey Report

Our Correspondent
Kohima | March 30

The economic growth in Nagaland has a direct effect from the policies and programmes of the state government. Over the years, the state economy is growing steadily from all sectors providing a robust, stable and sustained economy.

This was stated in Nagaland Economic Survey 2022-2023, tabled by Nagaland’s Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio in the just concluded first session of 14th Nagaland Legislative Assembly in Kohima.

The Survey was taken up by Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Nagaland.

During the current financial year 2022-23 the State economy has normalised and expected to grow even higher once all the monetary and fiscal policies are properly in place.

During the early part of 2021-22, the state received scanty rainfall which adversely affected agricultural activities in the state. Consequently, the growth of Agriculture and Allied Sector has remained subdued, the Survey reported.

During the year 2022-23, with better monsoon, the growth of the sector is projected to pick up. The State’s economy in 2020-21 was significantly impacted owing to the pandemic. With the rapid vaccination and waning of the virus, the economy however, recovered to its pre-pandemic growth during 2021-22 and 2022-23.

State economy estimated to grow at 8.84%

As per the advance estimate of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) for the year 2022-23, the state economy is estimated to grow at 8.84%.

During 2022-23 (Advance Estimate), the state economy witnessed a decline in growth from 9.10% achieved in 2021-22 to 8.84% largely due to moderation in the growth of service sector.

As per the advance estimates of GSDP 2022-23, primary sector is estimated to grow from -20.78% in 2021-22 (Quick Estimate) to 4.57% in 2022-23 (AE).

The sub-sector ‘crop’ has become the prime mover as any positive or negative growth in the sector has a considerable bearing on the growth of the primary sector.

During 2021-22, while all the sub-sectors of the primary sector had a positive growth, the growth of the crop sub sector has fallen to a negative -37.50% due to the dry spell faced by the state during the early part of the year.

This negative growth in the crop sub sector has pushed down the growth of the primary sector to a negative growth of -20.78%.

During 2022-23 (AE), the crop sub sector is projected to grow at 4.57% largely on account of better monsoon.
 
Growth forecast for livestock remained negative: In the other components of primary sector, the growth of all the sub sectors is estimated to remain positive during 2022-23 (AE) except livestock.

The growth forecast for livestock has remained negative due to the negative growth in the number of cattle (as per 20th Livestock census data).

During 2022-23 (AE), the growth rates of the sub sectors are estimated as follows: forestry and logging at 6.63 percent, fishery at 2.94% and mining and quarrying at 2.06 percent.

After reaching a peak of 40.53% in 2015-16, the growth of manufacturing sector has steadily declined during the recent years.
During the year 2022-23, the average growth of State Index of Industrial Production (IIP) till the third quarter registered a growth of 4.03% over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Consequently, the manufacturing sector is projected to grow at 2.89% during 2022-23 (AE).

With the growth rate of both cement and steel estimated at 20.8 percent and 17.1% respectively during 2022, the growth in the construction sector is estimated to pick up from 3.38% in 2021-22 to 17.87% in 2022-23 (AE).

In value terms, the growth of 17.87% is estimated to push up the GVA of the construction sector from Rs 1075.11 crore in 2021-22 (Q.E) to Rs 1267.21 crore in 2022-23 (A.E).
 
Tertiary Sector

The tertiary sector comprises of all economic activities that produces services. With the Index of Revenue Receipt increasing from 159.86 to 171.14% during 2022-23, the ‘trade, repairs, hotels and restaurants’ sector is projected to grow at 10.54% in 2022-23 as against 6.57% growth achieved in 2021-22.

Under the subsector of ‘transport, storage, communication and services related to broadcasting, the most prominent subsector is ‘land transport and communication services.’
 
Vehicles registered increased to 119015 in 2022

For the sub sector land transport, the number of vehicles registered increased from 116377 in 2021-22 to 119015 in 2022.

Extrapolating the growth rate, the transport sector is projected to grow by 2.34%.

In communication services related to broadcasting, the growth rate of the sub sector after deflating by CP1 is projected at 7.19% in 2022-23 (AE).

This is based on the growth rate of gross revenue of the telecom sector which was 13.6% during 2022.

The financial services comes under the category of supra regional sector due to their pan-India existence. Consequently, the share of the state is allocated by National Accounts Division of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India. In the process of allocation, the ministry relies on the volume of transaction made in the respective states.

During 20-21, the allocation for the state is anticipated to increase to Rs 1673.55 crore from Rs 1455.48 crore in 2021, registering a growth of 14.98%.

The estimate of the public administration comes from the budget documents of the central government, the state government and annual reports of the autonomous bodies. Under public administration, the administrative authority is divided into central government administration, state government administration and autonomous bodies.

As per the Budget Estimates of the State Government, the allocation for public administration has increased from Rs 4966.15 crore in 2021-22 to Rs 5841.17 during 2022-13, showing a growth of 17.62%.

Adjusting for the inflationary trend in the economy, the overall growth of public administration is estimated at 12.34%.

The sub-sector of ‘other services’ comprises of educations services, human health services, and other remaining services. During the year 2022-23 (AE), the GVA of the sector is estimated to grow at 8.72%.

With the other remaining services registering relatively marginal growth, the growth of the sub sector comes mostly from education services and health services, the Survey report stated.