Nagaland Lok Sabha by-polls will be test of Modi-Rio leadership

Naga Republic News & Analysis

With the May 28 by-polls to the 4 Lok Sabha seats, including in Nagaland, seen as a crucial test for the big national elections coming up in the early part of 2019, its outcome will be keenly watched by both the government in power at the Centre and also the Opposition, keen to recover lost ground from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Nagaland is also expected to see a keen contest between the ruling NDPP candidate Tokheho Yepthomi backed by the BJP and the People’s Democratic Alliance (PDA) and the Opposition-backed candidate C Apok Jamir of the Naga People’s Front, who is supported by the Congress. Interestingly, both Tokheho and Apok were only recently close aides in the Congress.

Another significant equation to take note  is the coming together of two political stalwarts–NPF President Dr Shurhozelie and Congressman Dr SC Jamir. The NPF candidate C. Apok Jamir is the son of the veteran Congressman now backed by the regional strongman Dr Shurhozelie. It will be interesting to see how the Dr Shurhozelie-SC Jamir equation plays out in the coming days.

Unlike the previous three Lok Sabha elections that was swept by then ruling NPF (under Rio), this is the first time that an even contest is on the cards.

However one would have expected greater enthusiasm among the voters. However public opinion in Nagaland was in no mood for another round of election that nobody really wanted. As per figures put out by the Election office, the voting percentage was projected at 75%. However some districts saw below par voter turnout. It will be interesting to see which candidate will benefit.

After a closely fought Assembly Election that took place only two months back, public expectation was to see some real change taking place, especially on the development front. However the NDPP-BJP led government under Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio is still to settle down and get on with governance.

The announcement of the by-polls has taken the focus away from issues of immediate concerns of development and peace.

Also after all the big talk of ‘election for solution’, which was one of the poll slogan of the BJP for the Nagaland Assembly Election, the ruling party at the Centre has gone completely silent on the Naga issue and this has only created doubts on the minds of the public about the so called ‘Naga peace accord’.

Although the conduct of the by-poll to elect the Lok Sabha Member of Parliament is a constitutional obligation, some amount of public grievance remains that whoever is elected from Nagaland on May 28, his term is going to be less than one year after which another Lok Sabha election will take place along with the rest of the country in 2019.

While past trends point to the ruling alliance candidate usually having an upper hand or for that matter in Nagaland people generally vote for the party which is in power at the Centre and also that the NDPP-BJP does not face any anti-incumbency, nevertheless ground report suggest otherwise.

According to The Naga Republic, this time the political situation in Nagaland is completely different. The opposition NPF, though out of power, still remains the single largest party and appears to have retained ‘goodwill support’ among the masses. The NPF candidate C. Apok Jamir also appears to enjoy wider acceptability.

The ruling PDA under Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio on the other hand was voted to power by a narrow margin and with its slogan of ‘change’, there is huge public expectation on the present government to perform and deliver.

The timing of the by-poll it would seem as also the general apprehension over the ‘Hindutva’ issue in Nagaland has put the Rio government on the defensive.

Meanwhile the 4 Lok Sabha by-polls across the country are seen as crucial for the BJP which held three of these four Lok Sabha seats. Even the fourth one in Nagaland was with the NPF—the BJP’s long time alliance partner till only recently.

However the trend appears to be that the BJP has lost some of its traditional allies like the Telegu Desam Party (TDP) in the south and the Naga Peoples Front (NPF) in the Northeast.

The by-polls also come close on the heels of embarrassing defeats for the ruling BJP in Gorakhpur and Phulpur constituencies in Uttar Pradesh.

As such, the May 28 by-polls will provide a test of the BJP’s popularity and the Opposition’s unity.

Interestingly even as the Congress and JD (S) came together to keep the BJP out of power in Karnataka, erstwhile political rivals, the Nagaland Pradesh Congress Committee and the NPF have joined forces to take on the BJP backed NDPP candidate in the forthcoming by-polls.

By-polls in the lone Lok Sabha seat in Nagaland was necessitated after sitting MP Neiphiu Rio became the state’s Chief Minister with the support of the BJP.

Like the rest of the country, the May 28 by-polls in Nagaland will be a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio’s popularity and leadership. The results on May 31 will tell whether the Modi wave in Nagaland still holds.

On the personal front the result will also tell whether Rio’s support base is still intact among the masses and perhaps a win for the NDPP candidate will send out a message that the recent Assembly election and formation of his government with BJP support was not just merely about luck but was based on popular support.

Or perhaps the mood of the people in Nagaland may be to put a ‘check’ on Rio’s government in the State by sending the NPF’s candidate C. Apok Jamir to the Lok Sabha.