Centre asked to be prepared for 23% hospitalisations in 3rd wave

August 23, 2021 57 Views No Comment

NEW DELHI, AUG 23 (AGENCIES): The Empowered Group 1 headed by NITI Aayog member V K Paul, in their recommendation shared with the government last month, has suggested preparing 23% hospitalisations for every 100 positive cases in a future Covid-19 infection surge.

This estimation was done by Empowered Group 1 headed by NITI Aayog member V K Paul and is higher than the projection it had come out with in September last year ahead of the COVID-19 second wave, when the calculation suggested that about 20 per cent patients with severe/moderately severe symptoms would require hospitalisation.

After the Covid-19 second wave wreaked havoc across the country, the recommendation to set aside a larger number of hospital beds is based on the pattern seen during April-June to this year.

Reportedly, during its peak, on June 1 when the active caseload across the country was 18 lakh, 21.74% cases required hospitalisation in the 10 states with the maximum cases, of them, 2.2% were in the Intensive Care Units (ICU).

Being ready for worse, the group is taking into account a peak of four-five lakh cases per day and has made a suggestion- two lakh ICU beds should be readied by next month- including 1.2 lakh ICU beds with ventilators, 7 lakh non-ICU hospital beds (of them 5 lakh oxygen-enabled), and 10 lakh Covid isolation care beds.

In September last year, months ahead of the second wave, the group had estimated that of 100 positive cases, 20 would need hospitalisation, with three requiring ICU care. Of the remaining 80 asymptomatic cases, it was estimated that 50 would need isolation at Corona Care Centres for seven days while the rest could stay at home.

However, a source claimed to Indian Express, that the group’s calculations then were based on the utilisation of hospital beds in Covid hospitals and health centres observed till the end of August 2020, during the first wave.

On June 1, during its peak, for instance, when the active caseload across the country stood at 18 lakh, 21.74 per cent cases required hospitalisation in the 10 states with the maximum cases and out of them, 2.2 per cent were admitted in ICU.

The group in its latest projection is considering a peak of 4-5 lakh cases per day, and has recommended that at least two lakh ICU beds should be ready by next month followed by 1.2 lakh ICU beds with ventilators, 7 lakh non-ICU hospital beds (of them 5 lakh oxygen-enabled), and 10 lakh Covid isolation care beds, as reported by the Indian Express.